Prediction of Solar-Flare-Caused Geomagnetic Storms

Abstract

A three-dimensional, time-dependent, MHD model of solar-disturbance caused storms (Wu, 1993, Wu et al., 1996) is used to predict the turning direction of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) at Earth. More explicitly, the authors examine the polarity of Bz caused by solar disturbances on the Sun. A specific solar disturbance, the solar flare, is used in this paper. The data set used is a subset of that used by Smith and Dryer (1995) and is based on observations of coronal shocks as seen in metric type II observations. These observations are associated with both source flares and geomagnetic storms which serve as markers of shock arrival at Earth. The Omni IMF data are used for comparison with the generalized simulation results of the 3D model. Eight events are studied in this paper. The results of six of them are consistent with the prediction model.

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