Numerical Prediction of a Bangladesh Tropical Cyclone


This paper deals with high resolution numerical weather prediction experiments for the recent Bangladesh Tropical Cyclone (April 1991). This devastating storm resulted in well over 100,000 deaths. The results from global model experiments carried out at a horizontal resolution of 213 waves (triangular truncation) and from a regional model at a horizontal resolution of 46 km are presented. Recent improvements in the model¡¦s parameterization of cumulus convection, land surface parameterization (the specification of ground wetness), enhanced evaporation over low wind speed regions were included in the sensitivity studies reviewed here. The improvements to the model results were also contributed by two data sets, one a high resolution sea surface temperature over the Arabian Sea and the other a satellite based surface wind estimate from microwave radiometer. These appear to provide strong positive impact during the storm¡¦s landfall history. Overall we demonstrate the results of successful landfall experiments with the high resolution global and regional models where we have incorporated the aforementioned improvements, i.e. in the data sets and in the physical parameterizations.

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