Simulation of Present-Day Climate Over the Indian Subcontinent by General Circulation Models


Three continues to be some improvement in the ability of general circulation models to simulate the present-day climate on large scales although further improvements in the model resolution and parameterization of physical processes are still needed for the realistic simulation of regional climates. Quantitative assessment of the magnitude of climate change on a regional scale and its implications are essential for understanding, planning and management of resources at national/regional levels. In developing countries like India, where the economy is largely regulated by variability in summer monsoon rainfall, the consideration of measures for reducing the impacts of global change should begin as soon as possible, particularly with regard to floods and droughts, cyclone disaster preparedness, hydrological planning in semi-arid regions and coastal zone management issues. With this in view, we examine here the skill of a range of global climate models in simulating the regional climatology of the Indian subcontinent. This is a necessary first step in preparing climate change scenarios for the region.

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