Application of a Time-Predictable Model in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis of Faults in Taiwan

  • Author(s): Yu-Wen Chang, Chin-Hsiung Loh, and Wen-Yu Jean
  • DOI: 10.3319/TAO.2017.02.08.01
  • Keywords: Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis, Time-dependent Model, Characteristic Earthquake, Renewal model, Poisson, Recurrence Interval
  • Develop recurrent fault interval probability distribution function
  • Time-dependent recurrence model is employed in PSHA in Taiwan
  • Estimate the earthquake occurrence probabilities for faults in Taiwan

Given the probability distribution function of the recurrence interval and the occurrence time of the previous occurrence of a fault, a time-dependent model of a particular fault for seismic hazard assessment was developed that takes into account the cyclic characteristics of the rupture of the active fault during a particular lifetime up to the present time. First the Gutenberg–Richter (1994) exponential frequency–magnitude relation for a source region was used, then based on a composite procedure the occurrence rate of the earthquake magnitude can be described. The time-dependent model was used to describe the characteristic behavior of a fault. Finally, the seismic hazards contribution from all sources, including both time-dependent and time-independent models, were added together to obtain total lifetime hazard curves. The effects of time-dependent and time-independent models of fault (e.g. Brownian passage time (BPT) and Poisson, respectively) in hazard calculations were also discussed. With the proposed fault model, the result shows that the seismic demands are lower than the current hazard calculation for areas where the time-dependent model were used to thosefaults, particularly, for fault (such as the Chelungpu fault) with short elapsed time since the last event occurred.

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