Time-predictable model application in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of faults in Taiwan

  • Author(s): Yu-Wen Chang, Chin-Hsiung Loh, and Wen-Yu Jean
  • DOI: 10.3319/TAO.2017.02.08.01
  • Keywords: Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, Time-dependent model, Characteristic earthquake, Renewal model, Poisson, Recurrence interval
  • Citation: Chang, Y.-W., C.-H. Loh, and W.-Y. Jean, 2017: Time-predictable model application in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of faults in Taiwan. Terr. Atmos. Ocean. Sci., 28, 815-831, doi: 10.3319/TAO.2017.02.08.01
  • Develop recurrent fault interval probability distribution function
  • Time-dependent recurrence model is employed in PSHA in Taiwan
  • Estimate the earthquake occurrence probabilities for faults in Taiwan

Given the probability distribution function relating to the recurrence interval and the occurrence time of the previous occurrence of a fault, a time-dependent model of a particular fault for seismic hazard assessment was developed that takes into account the active fault rupture cyclic characteristics during a particular lifetime up to the present time. The Gutenberg and Richter (1944) exponential frequency-magnitude relation uses to describe the earthquake recurrence rate for a regional source. It is a reference for developing a composite procedure modelled the occurrence rate for the large earthquake of a fault when the activity information is shortage. The time-dependent model was used to describe the fault characteristic behavior. The seismic hazards contribution from all sources, including both time-dependent and time-independent models, were then added together to obtain the annual total lifetime hazard curves. The effects of time-dependent and time-independent models of fault [e.g., Brownian passage time (BPT) and Poisson, respectively] in hazard calculations are also discussed. The proposed fault model result shows that the seismic demands of near fault areas are lower than the current hazard estimation where the time-dependent model was used on those faults, particularly, the elapsed time since the last event of the faults (such as the Chelungpu fault) are short.

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