Landslide Impact Assessment Using Projection Rainfall Data from Climate Change Scenario

  • Landslide impact variation under climate change scenario
  • Landslide impact assessment model for Gaoping river basin by TRIGRS model
  • Sensitivity of rainfall pattern toward landslide numerical model

This study ascertains landslide impact under climate change. The disaster impact under climate change was estimated by calculating the variation in safety factor (FS value). The result shows less landslide impact for the late 21st century (2075 - 2099) than in the late 20th century (1979 - 2003). The relationship between rainfall characteristics and landslide susceptibility was then clarified. A total of 40 out of 82 typhoon events from the late 20th century and 40 out of 88 events from the late 21st century were selected for estimating landslide impact. The landslide ratio in each event is calculated to find the variation in landslide occurrence between the late 20th and the late 21st century. The result proved that landslide occurrence is highly dependent on the rainfall characteristics. Landslides occurred earlier during each rainfall event for the late 21st century, which is consistent with rainfall characteristics, e.g., high intensity and short duration, for the late 21st century.

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