Using skewness and kurtosis of geoelectric fields to forecast the 2016/2/6, ML6.6 Meinong, Taiwan Earthquake

  • Author(s): Hong-Jia Chen, Chien-Chih Chen, Guy Ouillon, and Didier Sornette
  • DOI: 10.3319/TAO.2016.11.01.01
  • Keywords: Earthquake precursors, Geoelectric field, Skewness, Kurtosis, Binary classification
  • Treating geoelectric field distributions as earthquake precursors
  • Anomalous skewness and kurtosis of geoelectric fields before the Meinong earthquake
  • The GEMSTIP model can forecast the Meinong earthquake to some extent
Abstract

The earthquake-alarm model developed by Chen and Chen [Nat. Hazards, in press] is investigated to validate its forecasting performances for the 2016/2/6, ML6.6 Meinong, Taiwan earthquake. This alarm model is based on anomalies of skewness and kurtosis of geoelectric fields. The parameters of the model, such as the detected range and the predicted time window, allow us to estimate the empirical relationships between geoelectric anomalies and large earthquakes. As a result, the skewness and kurtosis anomalies are shown to appear before the Meinong earthquake on the four neighboring stations (LIOQ, WANL, KAOH, and CHCH). According to the model analysis, a time lag exists between clusters of anomalies and earthquakes, and depends on local geological features, as well as the durations over which anomalies are continuously observed, which may also display a time dependence. In conclusion, this alarm model is able to correlate earthquakes and geoelectrical anomalies, and is promising to forecast large earthquakes.

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